AT Kearney, a leading global consultancy with expertise in the 3D Printing industry, recently released 3D Printing: A Manufacturing Revolution. Lots of great content in there, outlining their belief of how the market will evolve and grow at an average growth rate of 25% over the next five years en route to being a $17B global industry by 2020. This is a bit less than the Wohler’s Report’s estimate of $20B by 2020, but they are clearly believers in a continuation of the aggressive market growth we are seeing at 3Diligent.
The 16-page report has a number of interesting takeaways, but here are the big ones:
1. The question is not if but when companies need to consider 3D Printing. This is the very first line of the report. AT Kearney fundamentally believes in the disruptive nature of the technology, and that most every company will need to incorporate 3D Printing into their operations at some point – whether it’s simply for prototyping or as a more central part of the supply chain for mass production. Smart companies will get ahead of the curve and start down this road to 3DP integration sooner.
2. There are 5 dimensions upon which 3DP offers breakthrough benefits relative to traditional manufacturing. Those are: 1) making custom designs for end users (mass customization), 2) producing complex products with much lower capital investments and lower variable costs (New Capabilities), 3) faster speed to market through accelerated R&D (Lead time and speed), 4) eliminating inventory requirements through on-demand part manufacture (Supply chain simplification), and 5) reduction in scrap (Waste reduction).
3. Value chains will be disrupted by 3D Printing. AT Kearney foresees a world where mobile and 3DP integration will allow for customers to see an item they like, customize it via their phone, and have it printed on demand to be picked up within hours. Naturally, this uproots the existing system, where decisions on inventory stocking are typically made months in advance, leaving customers to take or leave what’s there, with the power of the internet to hopefully aid them in finding a viable option.
4. The fastest growth will come from the jewelry and energy sectors. 3D Printing has been most readily adopted so far by aerospace, industrial, healthcare, and automotive companies, and significant growth of 15-25% per year is expected for each of those sectors. However, the most rapid growth is anticipated for the jewelry (25-30% per year) and energy (30-35% per year) industries.
5. Hardware improvements are needed to achieve production levels for many industries. While 3DP serves as a viable solution for prototyping and limited production run products, the end goal is to achieve rapid manufacture of production parts at significant scale. Gating criteria to achieving mass production are printer speed, available materials, assembly and testing, and achievable tolerances. While they expect these criteria will be achieved in the next 5-7 years for such products as cameras, biomedical device kits, and iPhone cases, scale production of such items as cars, apple watches, cosmetics, and helmets are likely to farther away.
6. New software platforms will be vital to support 3DP applications. To support this new ecosystem, software will need to be developed that supports the evolving supply chain.
We here at 3Diligent generally think AT Kearney has done a very nice job of setting the stage, and we encourage you to give the report a read yourself. For a bit of additional detail on applications and possibilities of 3D Printing, have a look at our Possbilities of 3D Printing report. Additionally, if you’re curious to know more about the prototype/production crossover point, you might be interested in having a look at the 3DP Crossover Point Post within our Economics of 3D Printing series.